Water Penguin MillTier 1
at 店冠
decks
1
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
1-0-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.0%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327
· median 1327
· range 1327–1327
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1236
Q1 1307
Q3 1396
1419
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 25.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 25.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
